Is bitcoin at the bottom now?
I carefully selected some market analysis articles for your rational reference and hope to judge and analyze the future market for you.
Now many people take the trend at the end of 18 as a reference. In fact, I made a comparison one month ago. But is this the end of the decline and the beginning of the bottom?_DJMINER
First of all, I should be a relatively firm bear, because in big logic, I do not agree with the so-called bitcoin halving bull market, because now bitcoin 80% has been circulated, the remaining 4 million halves of the effect has been greatly reduced compared with before, and bitcoin has undergone a very big bubble market after the so-called big bull market in 2017, and now the market is in the first place. In the process of rational regression, during this period, the possibility of artificial bull market is not absent, but the probability is very low. There is a very important logic for this. In 2018, tens of billions of counterfeit coins came into the market, which is basically based on the increase of bitcoin and Ethereum. Eighty or 90% of these counterfeit coins are "air coins", which are specially issued for harvesting "leeks". In the past year, these issuers have been running away from home. We have created the impression that digital currency equals the Ponzi scheme of finance. However, there are many institutions and large households in these projects, which leads to a serious shortage of incremental funds. If bitcoin wants to go out of the bull market, it needs new capital to enter. If the digital currency market can not solve the problem of artificial manipulation and the situation that there are more exchanges than digital currency, it is impossible to attract regular capital to enter the market. Is it necessary for the market hot money to fry bitcoin to remove the trap for the previous people? They can do the difference between 10000 US dollars and 10000 US dollars. They can trade repeatedly with futures contracts and make profits. So I don't think the market has enough power to create new highs and get out of the bull market at present.
It is based on this logic that I have judged from the beginning of the year that this is a rebound market, possibly a super b wave._DJMINER
Let's compare the trend of the two segments. In November 2018, after breaking the position, it fell 51% and took 134 trading days. Now, it is down 18% and takes 26 trading days.
From the point of view of time and space, it seems that there are no conditions for the completion of the foundation.
In terms of shape, it is currently in a box. If the box is broken down, there will be about 20% of the falling space in theory.
At present, this probability still exists. Of course, if we maintain a trend of sideways shocks here, if we stick to the end of December, it is possible to complete the bottoming work here, but we can't see the signal at present.
Strategy: digital currency is different from traditional financial products. At present, we can't judge the bottom of bitcoin by its value standard, so we all know that it may reach US $100000 or return to zero. Heaven and hell may be just one thought, so we always recommend using hedging tools to invest in bitcoin. In addition, I think any left side transaction is not suitable for digital currency. I suggest you wait for the signal from the right side to make a decision. For a target with an annual amplitude of more than 300%, you will not lose too much profit because of the right side._DJMINER
Now many people take the trend at the end of 18 as a reference. In fact, I made a comparison one month ago. But is this the end of the decline and the beginning of the bottom?_DJMINER
First of all, I should be a relatively firm bear, because in big logic, I do not agree with the so-called bitcoin halving bull market, because now bitcoin 80% has been circulated, the remaining 4 million halves of the effect has been greatly reduced compared with before, and bitcoin has undergone a very big bubble market after the so-called big bull market in 2017, and now the market is in the first place. In the process of rational regression, during this period, the possibility of artificial bull market is not absent, but the probability is very low. There is a very important logic for this. In 2018, tens of billions of counterfeit coins came into the market, which is basically based on the increase of bitcoin and Ethereum. Eighty or 90% of these counterfeit coins are "air coins", which are specially issued for harvesting "leeks". In the past year, these issuers have been running away from home. We have created the impression that digital currency equals the Ponzi scheme of finance. However, there are many institutions and large households in these projects, which leads to a serious shortage of incremental funds. If bitcoin wants to go out of the bull market, it needs new capital to enter. If the digital currency market can not solve the problem of artificial manipulation and the situation that there are more exchanges than digital currency, it is impossible to attract regular capital to enter the market. Is it necessary for the market hot money to fry bitcoin to remove the trap for the previous people? They can do the difference between 10000 US dollars and 10000 US dollars. They can trade repeatedly with futures contracts and make profits. So I don't think the market has enough power to create new highs and get out of the bull market at present.
It is based on this logic that I have judged from the beginning of the year that this is a rebound market, possibly a super b wave._DJMINER
Let's compare the trend of the two segments. In November 2018, after breaking the position, it fell 51% and took 134 trading days. Now, it is down 18% and takes 26 trading days.
From the point of view of time and space, it seems that there are no conditions for the completion of the foundation.
In terms of shape, it is currently in a box. If the box is broken down, there will be about 20% of the falling space in theory.
At present, this probability still exists. Of course, if we maintain a trend of sideways shocks here, if we stick to the end of December, it is possible to complete the bottoming work here, but we can't see the signal at present.
Strategy: digital currency is different from traditional financial products. At present, we can't judge the bottom of bitcoin by its value standard, so we all know that it may reach US $100000 or return to zero. Heaven and hell may be just one thought, so we always recommend using hedging tools to invest in bitcoin. In addition, I think any left side transaction is not suitable for digital currency. I suggest you wait for the signal from the right side to make a decision. For a target with an annual amplitude of more than 300%, you will not lose too much profit because of the right side._DJMINER
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